Bitcoin’s historical cycles as analyzed by on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock point towards a potential significant rally in 2025. This analysis is based on the average duration between Bitcoin’s halving events and subsequent peaks, with the next peak anticipated in the summer of 2025.
Bitcoin’s halving events, occurring roughly every four years, reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half. The last halving event took place on April 20, 2024, at the block height of 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, these halving events have been followed by substantial price increases due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoin entering the market leading to increased demand.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has seen a decline of nearly 12% from its halving price of $63,900. While this may be discouraging in the short term, past cycles have also experienced periods of consolidation or minor declines before significant rallies. The current market behavior suggests a period of accumulation as investors and institutions position themselves for the anticipated price surge.
September has historically been a challenging month for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin’s performance in the first week adding credence to this narrative. The price of Bitcoin has fallen 8% this month, exceeding the decade-long average decrease of 5%. September has been identified as one of the worst months for Bitcoin in the last decade, with average losses recorded since 2013.
Despite the challenges in September, Bitcoin has often seen recovery in the following months. October, known as “Uptober,” has historically shown an average gain of 22% after a September decline of 5%. In the 2021 crypto market bull run, November also recorded a significant increase of 46% following October’s gains. This pattern of recovery following September dips underscores the resilience of Bitcoin in the face of market fluctuations.
While current market trends may appear unfavorable for Bitcoin, historical analysis and patterns suggest potential for a significant rally in 2025. Investors should take into consideration the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements and plan their strategies accordingly to capitalize on future price surges.